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A Post-iPad World?

In this guest opinion piece, Forrester analyst Sarah Rotman Epps argues that the introduction of the iPad ushers in a whole new era in personal computing, one with less choice, but more relevance.

There is something very significant about the iPad beyond how many units it will sell: it's changing how we think about the PC. The iPad creates a use case for a device that doesn't do everything your laptop does, targeted at a consumer that uses devices more for consumption than production. The iPad ushers in a new era of personal computing that we call "Curated Computing"—a mode of computing where choice is constrained to deliver less complex, more relevant experiences. Let me repeat that, because it's the essence of the Curated Computing experience: less choice; more relevance.

Consider this: consumers can do a wide variety of things with a Windows PC or Mac, like run commands, install robust software, connect easily to external devices, and save files locally. But the iPad does things differently. Its operating system runs more like a jukebox than a desktop, asking consumers to choose (and often pay for) applications from a predetermined set list. Each of these applications is in itself also curated, since the publisher selects content and functionality that's appropriate to the form factor, just as a museum curator selects artwork from a larger collection to exhibit in a particular gallery space.

But why is this new era of Curated Computing so important? After more than two decades of failed experiments with tablet PCs (remember the Dynapad?), consumers finally have a tablet that works—and the iPad works precisely because it's a Curated Computing experience. Even while some pundits may scream about Apple controlling the ecosystem, at least some consumers (more than 1 million so far, says Apple) show willingness to trade off unlimited choice for relevance. But success beyond the iPad is not guaranteed. In order for tablets to grow as a viable market beyond the iPad, product strategists must reshape consumers' expectations of what a PC can be and how it fits into consumers' everyday life, alongside desktops, laptops and smart-phones.

The iPad is a device you want, but don't need. It departs radically from what consumers think they want from a PC. One month prior to the iPad's launch, a Forrester survey of more than 4,500 US online consumers revealed the top features consumers said they wanted in their next PC purchase. Two-thirds of US online consumers want a DVD drive, but this feature, along with other most-wanted features like CD burners and webcams, are absent from the iPad. The iPad's features, such as the touchscreen, are lower on consumers' wish list, with only 22 percent desiring a touchscreen for their next PC. This doesn't mean consumers won't buy the iPad, it just means that Apple has a steep education process ahead of it. Apple and its future tablet competitors need to teach consumers that they can live without these standard PC components in their tablet device—and in fact, the experience can be better for it.

This education process should not discourage future tablet success. In fact, it is finally the right time to introduce a fourth form factor (desktops, laptops, and net-books are the first three) to the consumer PC market, since it's now the norm for households to own multiple PCs. In 2003, 25 percent of all US households owned more than one PC; by the end of 2008, 45 percent did. Among US online consumers, at the end of 2009, 69 percent had multiple PCs. Even with these growing adoption rates, it's still very difficult to create a new product category. However, Apple comes to it with several strengths, such as preexisting iPhone OS software that works for this new form factor, a developer community that has created thousands of custom apps, and the Apple Store, which provides a laboratory where consumers can test out the iPad before they buy.

To compete with Apple in the tablet market, product strategists must bridge the gap between what consumers expect from a PC and what a tablet actually delivers. Most importantly, they should embrace a Curated Computing experience, which limits choice in a good way, turning the limitations of the form factor into strengths rather than weaknesses. The iPad's success can be attributed to its guided simplicity: the only way to use the device is via apps, which are expressly developed for the device.

Additionally, tablets should be positioned as complementary to the rest of a product line. Even though there have been many claims to the contrary, it is unlikely tablets will eliminate laptops, or even netbooks, at least in the short term. So consumers need to see how this device fits into their life in a new way. If it's the best way to read The Wall Street Journal in bed or listen to NPR in the shower, don't be afraid to state its purpose. No one takes their laptop to the bathroom.

The iPad paves the way for other tablets to follow—if other tablets can get the Curated Computing experience right, and it's not clear that tablets that run on Android or Windows 7 necessarily will. There's more at stake here than just tablets: Curated Computing will be the dominant design principle behind future form factors like wearable devices. Product strategists that don't want to cede the future of devices to Apple should start thinking like museum curators and editors: sometimes less is more.