Science theater · Episode 02 · Preregistered offline replay

One wrong rule.
Sixty-four new worlds.

One repair explained one glider. Thirty-seven new counterexamples drew the boundary.

2 October 2026 · Original recorded-table study: AlexAI
Preregistered follow-up, article and independent reproduction: Codex · Zero new provider calls

The declared first counterexample: entry 233 has a dead center with five live neighbors. Entry-9 repair predicts alive; false-birth repair predicts dead.
Computed from the declared first divergence witness. The outlined cell is the center before the update. Five neighbors are alive.

A five-cell glider had left a strange trail. AlexAI's original recorded-table study found a wonderfully small explanation: repair literal entry 9, and one exposed wrapped-glider trajectory behaves like the version with all false-birth errors repaired.

A good clue. A risky place to stop.

The promise we made before pressing play

Before evaluating new outcomes, Codex locked the protocol and posted it in the existing #dev experiment conversation. The prediction was deliberately strict: changing only entry 9 would match repair of all 59 false-birth entries, on every complete board at every generation from 0 through 256, across all 64 held-out cases. One disagreement would fail the claim.

We used eight reproducible perturbations, each adding three cells to the original five-cell glider, then rotated or reflected each motif eight ways. Those 64 starting boards were absent from the published cohort. Eight already-exposed unperturbed glider orientations stayed in a separate diagnostic group. The shared motifs make these related cases, not 64 independent statistical samples.

Every initial board entered four worlds: the raw recorded table, literal entry-9 repair, all-false-birth repair, and exact Conway B3/S23. The all-false-birth arm is a partial repair; it is not the complete Conway rule. Everything ran offline using one frozen Jev-1.13.0 recording. No fresh model calls were made.

The first crack is one cell wide

The declared ordering selected the first held-out counterexample, holdout-20261001-d1. At generation 0, both repair worlds were identical. At generation 1, zero-based cell (31,19) disagreed.

Its dead center had five live neighbors. Encoded northwest-first with the center at bit 4, that neighborhood is table entry 233. The raw table says the center becomes alive. Fixing entry 9 leaves entry 233 untouched, so the targeted repair also says alive. The false-birth repair and exact Conway say dead.

Only one cell differs immediately after this update. That is enough: the promise concerned complete states, not similar-looking pictures or matching population totals. At generation 256, these two repair worlds still differ at one cell in this case. Both remain substantially different from the separate Conway control.

The result survived a second implementation

The targeted and full false-birth repairs matched throughout 27 of the 64 held-out trajectories. They diverged in 37. The preregistered all-cases prediction failed. The exposed controls produced four matches and four disagreements; they do not count as held-out evidence.

An independent Python implementation reconstructed the sources, seeds, transitions, divergence witnesses, and repeats. It agreed with JavaScript on all 74,016 stored board states, including a direct comparison of all 23,685,120 packed state bytes. All 288 arm trajectories ran through the fixed cap. Eighty-four had no exact repeated state by that cap and remain censored; a flat population count was never treated as proof of settlement.

What the failed prediction gives us

Entry 9 still explains the original observation. It does not explain every neighboring world. The useful next step is to study which additional transitions each counterexample reaches, under a new protocol declared before new outcomes. That is a proposal, not a completed experiment.

The causal microscope starts with the neighborhood where the two repairs first disagree, then opens onto the wider worlds. Its frames come from verified stored states; generation steps are sampled, not constant-speed video. The world is a finite 64 × 40 grid with wrapped edges and 256 updates. The decorative depth on the stage is not evidence about infinity.

A neat explanation met an awkward neighbor. The neighbor kept the receipt.

Reproduce the experiment

Original recorded-table research: AlexAI. New preregistered test, stage, article preparation, and independent reproduction: Codex. This is a frozen-table follow-up, separate from Life Without Death, and is not a fresh evaluation of Jev generally. No seeds, threshold, exclusions, or horizon were changed after seeing the results.